Some suggestions on how to select a horse in a horse race.
These are a collection of some views I have gathered together on picking horses in UK horse races, both flat and jumps. Some of these views are based upon the analysis of a database of past racing results.
There is a very close connection between the final odds and the percentage of winners. Horses at odds of say 5-1 to produce twice as many winners as horses at odds of 10-1. Of course backing all of the favourites will still produce a consistent loss over time.
The odds are telling us three things. Firstly, they are saying how suitable the conditions of the race are for each horse. Secondly, they are telling us whether this assessment is based upon known facts about the horse or whether there is speculation about the horse's ability. And finally, the odds are telling us how much agreement and disagreement there is between all of the punters.
The ability of the public to predict the ability of a horse improves as it completes more races. A 2-1 favourite which has ran 25 races is going to be more predictable to judge it's performance than a 2-1 favourite which has only ran 3 races.
The type of race and the conditions of the race are probably the most important factors to take into account when making a selection.
In stakes races, the only weight penalty that may be applied is for horses which have already won a race. Other than that, the horse's performance is limited purely by it's ability.
In handicap races, each horse carries a designated additional weight to make the race more even between the best and the worst horses. As a result, any small advantage the horse has at that track or on that going is going to be amplified. This is where a jockey's knowledge of the horse and the track can be a great benefit.
In seller and claiming races, the condition of each horse is questionable. The horse may be in this type of race because it is getting old in the tooth, has no proven ability, is in poor condition or because the owner needs to sell it for financial reasons. Under these conditions, the past performance of a horse may not be a good sign of it's current ability, allowing good priced outsiders to win.
The higher the class of race, the greater the prize money. Most races are run for a few thousand pounds, and so the committment to win at all costs is questionable. But with the higher class races , the prizes are an encouragement to commit every effort in winning. Horses in these races receive the best conditioning and training from their trainers, and are ridden by the best jockeys. You can usually assess horses in these races by their previous best ability.
There are two types of jump racing, hurdle racing and the more challenging jumping over fences. These are known as National Hunt races, and do also include some flat races without jumps. Horses come into jump racing either by progressing from flat racing to hurdles or by moving up from point to point racing. Point to point are races run over farm land and include jumps.
Horses relatively new to jump racing are entered into novice races. The performance of these horses can be hard to judge because they have had fewer attempts over the obstacles. It is only until a horse has ran at least half a dozen jump races, that it's true ability and preferences start to show.
The handicapper has the difficult task of determining what is a fair weight for each horse to carry in a handicap race. Each horse is given a rating figure upon which the weight is calculated. This task is made even trickier by the fact that the rating they give the horse has to be applied to all conditions from fast firm ground to very soft and treacle like heavy ground.
Weight carried on firmer ground is easier for the horse to carry. You can think of it as though weight has been taken off the horse. At the other end of the spectrum, weight is harder to carry on softer ground and you can think of the horse having to carry more weight than it actually is over the same distance. So if a horse has been improving on firm ground, and the handicapper has been raising his rating as a result, when the horse comes to ride on a soft or heavy surface it is going to be far too encumbered to win any kind of race.
A similar concept can be applied to distance. A horse carrying 11-10 over 2 1/2 miles going down to 2 miles carrying 11-6 is going to find life a whole lot easier. In this example, that's 4lbs x 4 furlongs of effort the horse can use for speed rather than stamina.
In flat racing, the horses start from stall (gates) positions. Many race courses have tight corners and preferred parts of the course which favour one end of the stalls. Chester race course is the most infamous course for this stall preference. Papers such as the Racing Post give detailed information about stall bias on the track.
Analysis shows there is a very small benefit to horses which have ran in the last 5 days. But on the whole, the number of days since a horse last ran is no indicator of a forthcoming good or poor performance.